September Fog and Winter Snow

There’s a saying that there will be a snow in winter for each foggy morning in September. This year I’m finally going to put this to the test.

My wife told me about this folk axiom years ago. We’d remember it when we saw a foggy September morning, then promptly forget it the next day. This cycle repeated itself throughout the month, and come October it had disappeared from our minds.

I’m no meteorologist, but I suspect this has to do with the moisture in fall. The more moisture in early fall, the more available moisture in the winter. Even if this is correct, I’m not sure if it applies only to the southern United States or elsewhere. Regardless, if it has any accuracy, it could prove to be a valuable forecasting tool.

This year, upon seeing our first fog on the third of September, I vowed to keep a record and compare it to the number of snow days this winter. For two mornings in a row it was foggy, so if this proves to be true we’re in for at least two snowfalls.

I’m fully aware that even if this correlation works this year, it may be a coincidence. Testing this would require multiple year experiments in multiple locations. Regardless, the results will be interesting.

At least until spring, when I will have completely forgotten about it.